In my professional career as a research scientist, it was important that I know something about averages. When I conducted studies and collected information on many people, averages were helpful in describing the group as a whole. But I also learned that an average for a group often doesn’t apply to a single person’s circumstances. Sometimes it isn’t even a good description of a group.
For example, if you had 5 people and their ages were 21, 25, 30, 32 and 42, you could say their average age, or their mean, was 30. You would get that by adding up the ages (total is 150) and dividing that total by 5 (the number of people you had). And this looks like a good number to represent this group’s average age.
But if their ages were more spread out (in statistical terms you would say the group had a higher standard deviation)—like 8, 11, 12, 55, and 64—you would still get 30 as an average, but this doesn’t seem as good a number to represent the group. No one in the group has an age that is even close to this average.
I once heard a joke about a weather forecaster who was reporting on the temperature that he experienced. He had one hand in hot water (100 degrees F) and the other hand on an ice cube (32 degrees F). He reported that with an average temperature of 66 degrees, he was comfortable! Certainly, although this temperature is generally considered comfortable, that wasn’t true in this case.
So sometimes an average may have limited utility, especially in predicting an individual’s circumstance.
So why is this topic important to me?
When I look through the literature about health conditions of seniors, sometimes I get concerned about the seemingly endless list of things that can go wrong with me. I am of an age that is often reported as likely to have various age-related chronic health conditions, like arthritis, asthma, cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes. I go for annual physical check-ups, and I currently have none of these conditions. Except for some minor aches and pains, I feel pretty good. The CDC reported that 88% of women over 65 have at least one of these six conditions, and one-quarter have at least three. And the prevalence of these conditions increases with age. So in several groups of women my age, on average, almost all will have at least one of these conditions. But it doesn’t mean that I do.
I think that my reading about all the health problems that can happen to me has raised my fears about aging, and reduced some of the enthusiasm I have had about retirement and my future. I know that as I age, many of these conditions, and others, are likely to happen to me, some sooner than others. And I know some women my age who already have one or more of these conditions. But maybe I won’t experience some of them, or maybe research will lead to later onset and better treatments.
I conclude that while averages about the percent of women with health problems may accurately describe group characteristics, they don’t necessarily describe me. Knowledge about these conditions has increased my awareness of the need for preventive measures and health screenings, so that I can benefit from early detection and if needed, the initiation of treatment. But I will try to not live as though I am at imminent risk of getting all these conditions. After all, averages for some things may not apply to me…yet.
Reflections on Aging 